A forest growth and production model under climate fluctuations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4336/2025.pfb.45e202502328Keywords:
Forecasting, Probabilistic distribution, Climate variabilityAbstract
Forest growth and production models are essential for predicting stand dynamics and assisting in management planning. However, the accuracy of these estimates is influenced by several factors, mainly climate fluctuations. This study evaluated the performance of two probabilistic distribution models with predict of parameters, the second being an improved version of the first, incorporating a new approach for projecting tree height and associating the errors found with climate variables. Data from continuous forest inventories of Khaya grandifoliola seminal monoculture and Eucalyptus urophylla x Eucalyptus grandis cv. GG100 rows were used in two crop-livestock-forest integration systems (ILPF), located in Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The validation of the projections was performed using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the calculation of the percentage error of the projected volume. The results indicate that climate fluctuations interfere with the accuracy of the models. The improved model systematically reduced the estimation errors, improving the accuracy of the projections.
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