Climate change vulnerability and uncertainty reduction in projections for Dicksonia sellowiana (Pres.) Hook

Authors

  • Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros Embrapa Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia
  • Mahalia Sojo Cardoso Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Engenharia Florestal
  • Rafael Walter Albuquerque Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Engenharia Florestal
  • Sérgio Eustáquio Noronha Embrapa Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4336/2013.pfb.33.75.372

Keywords:

Atlantic Forest, Xaxim, Global warming, Ecological niche

Abstract

This work had the objective of investigate the impacts of climate changes with different climate settings on the spatial distribution of Dicksonia sellowiana (Pres.) Hook. The survey was carried out by using spatial distribution modeling and methods in order to reduce the uncertainty of these predictions. The software Openmodeller was used to run the modeling with five spatial distribution algorithms. The modeling included the climate model HadCM3 of green house gases emission for the year 2050 for two CO2 emission scenarios: optimistic (B2) and pessimistic (A2). The area under the curve (AUC statistics) and the Kappa statistics resulted high values for all algorithms tested meaning high values of accuracy. Regarding only the species habitats available all algorithms have shown efficient distribution models and the projections were significantly different between the predictions for the future climate and for the current climate. Both models have shown reduction of 50% of the species potential area . Even with the high values of accuracy the variability of predictions for the future spatial distribution models confirm the need of consensus methods to reduce the uncertainty associated with this type of modeling.

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Author Biographies

Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Embrapa Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia

Possui graduação em Biologia pela Universidade de Brasília (1994), mestrado em Ecologia pela Universidade de Brasília (1997) e doutorado em Ecologia pela Universidade de Brasília (2002). Atualmente é pesquisador A da Embrapa Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia. Tem experiência na área de Ecologia, com ênfase em ecologia de comunidades, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: ecologia do fogo no Cerrado, resgate e conservação de germoplasma vegetal em áreas sob impacto ambiental, fitossociologia e modelos de distribuição de espécies.

Mahalia Sojo Cardoso, Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Engenharia Florestal

Possui graduação em Engenharia Florestal pela Universidade de Brasília

Rafael Walter Albuquerque, Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Engenharia Florestal

Engenheiro Florestal pela Universidade de Brasília (UnB) e Mestre em Engenharia de Tranportes pela Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo (USP)

Sérgio Eustáquio Noronha, Embrapa Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia

Mestre pela UNIVERSIDADE DE BRASILIA (UnB). Atualmente é Analista da EMBRAPA - Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia. Tem experiência na área de Geografia, com ênfase em Geoprocessamento, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), Sensoriamento Remoto, GPS e Gestão Ambiental

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Published

2013-09-30

How to Cite

MEDEIROS, Marcelo Brilhante de; CARDOSO, Mahalia Sojo; ALBUQUERQUE, Rafael Walter; NORONHA, Sérgio Eustáquio. Climate change vulnerability and uncertainty reduction in projections for Dicksonia sellowiana (Pres.) Hook. Pesquisa Florestal Brasileira, [S. l.], v. 33, n. 75, p. 299–308, 2013. DOI: 10.4336/2013.pfb.33.75.372. Disponível em: https://pfb.sede.embrapa.br/pfb/article/view/372. Acesso em: 9 mar. 2026.

Issue

Vol. 33 No. 75 (2013): jul./set.

Section

Articles

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